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Executive Summary

As the war in Ukraine drags on, Azerbaijan and Turkey have emerged as key players in Europe’s strategy to diversify away from Russian energy. However, the prospect of a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire raises questions about the sustainability of Azerbaijan’s competitive advantage as a major alternative energy supplier to Europe.

This paper analyzes the likely outcomes of such a ceasefire on Azerbaijan’s energy export position and provides recommendations to strengthen its long-term strategic role.

1. Background and Context

Since 2022, the European Union has drastically reduced its reliance on Russian energy. In this vacuum, Azerbaijan, via Turkey, has gained prominence through the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC), particularly the TANAP and TAP pipelines. Strategic alignment between Baku and Ankara has turned the region into a vital energy bridge between the Caspian and Europe.

With talk of a potential ceasefire or negotiated settlement between Russia and Ukraine, the geopolitical landscape may shift again. The key question is whether Europe’s pivot away from Russian gas is temporary or represents a long-term structural change.

2. Scenarios of a Ceasefire Impact

Scenario A: Partial Normalization with Russia

Russia regains partial access to European energy markets. EU countries with strong industrial bases (e.g., Germany, Italy) may pressure for re-engagement. Azerbaijan’s market share could stagnate or decline. Long-term projects like the expansion of SGC may face funding slowdowns.

Scenario B: Political Ceasefire but Enduring Distrust

EU maintains strategic diversification despite peace. Azerbaijan continues to be viewed as a long-term hedge against Russian dominance. Turkey strengthens its role as a regional energy hub. The Middle Corridor project gains strategic importance.

Scenario C: Full Re-engagement with Russia

Unlikely in the short term due to deep political distrust. Would severely weaken Azerbaijan’s competitive position unless alternative advantages are consolidated now.

3. Strategic Advantages of Azerbaijan (Even Post-Ceasefire)

Geographic neutrality in European-Russian tensions Close alliance with Turkey, a NATO member and EU energy partner Access to Caspian and Central Asian gas (e.g., via Turkmenistan) Perceived political stability and reliability compared to Middle East or North Africa routes Support from EU in past agreements

(e.g., 2022 memorandum doubling gas exports)

4. Risks and Constraints

Russia’s potential to apply geopolitical pressure in the South Caucasus Infrastructure limitations in capacity and interconnectivity Competing routes and suppliers, including LNG from the U.S. or Qatar Potential instability in Karabakh or Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization process

5. Policy Recommendations

For Azerbaijan:

Accelerate infrastructure expansion (TANAP, TAP, and interconnectors to Balkan states) Diversify partners by including Central Asian gas via the Caspian Strengthen energy diplomacy with key EU stakeholders Invest in green transition technologies to align with EU long-term goals

For the EU:

Institutionalize long-term agreements with Azerbaijan and Turkey Support regional stability mechanisms in the South Caucasus Include Azerbaijan in strategic dialogue on energy security and decarbonization Invest in Middle Corridor logistics and energy infrastructure

6. Conclusion

Even in the event of a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire, Europe’s strategic imperative to avoid overdependence on Russian energy is unlikely to fade.

Azerbaijan, in close coordination with Turkey, must act now to consolidate its role as a reliable, long-term supplier of natural gas and possibly green energy to Europe.

This opportunity, shaped by crisis, can become a permanent geopolitical advantage—if backed by foresight, investment, and diplomacy.

Summary:

The recent visit of Syria’s Foreign Minister to Moscow marks a significant step in the Assad-successor government’s attempt to stabilize the country amid ongoing sectarian tensions and security friction with Israel. The visit highlights Damascus’s strategic interest in leveraging Russia’s long-standing presence and influence in Syria and the wider Mediterranean to contain internal unrest and boost regional stability.

Key Observations:

Renew of Syria-Russia Relations:

Syria seeks to renew and reshape its ties with Russia, relying on Moscow’s military infrastructure and diplomatic reach to reduce domestic tensions and support economic recovery.

Regional Coordination, Turkish involvement:

The rapprochement is taking place within a broader regional framework. Turkey is visibly active in Mediterranean energy corridors and views increased Russian influence with strategic interest. Moscow’s cooperation with Egypt and its growing presence in Libya are also key to securing Syria’s Mediterranean coast.

Limited Iranian Role:

Despite historical ties, Iran has been largely sidelined in the current Syrian recalibration. Contributing factors include:

-Israeli security sensitivities

– U.S. and Arab opposition to Tehran’s influence

-Ongoing Tehran-Ankara rivalry

Chinese Alignment:

China supports stabilization in Syria as a means to facilitate the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), likely perceiving Russia’s expanded role as a source of security continuity in the country.

U.S. Perspective:

The United States appears to cautiously welcome this Moscow-Damascus engagement if it leads to greater internal stability in Syria and reduced threats along Israel’s borders.

Assessment:

Russia is emerging as a central actor in Syria’s post-Assad recalibration. While Moscow is unlikely to enable Tehran’s return to influence in Syria, it is positioned to balance security dynamics between Damascus, Israel, and regional powers. This development creates both constraints and opportunities for Western and regional stakeholders seeking stability in the Eastern Mediterranean.

As the 50-day deadline issued by President Trump to Russia approaches its midpoint, a review of developments thus far—particularly the recent Istanbul meeting focused on prisoner exchanges—suggests that little meaningful progress is likely to emerge during the second half of this period.

Key Targets: China and India

While the ultimatum is formally aimed at Moscow, its strategic pressure is clearly directed toward countries with substantial fossil fuel trade with Russia, notably China and India.

China: Energy Dependency and Slowing Growth

China remains a major importer of Russian LNG, and the strategic Power of Siberia 2 pipeline is currently under development to deepen this energy linkage. Simultaneously, China’s economic growth has decelerated since 2024, with forecasts indicating a decline from 4.7% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026. These pressures suggest that Beijing is likely to adopt a neutral or passive stance in response to U.S. tariff threats, avoiding direct confrontation while safeguarding its energy and economic interests.

India: Economic Tensions with Washington as Leverage for Moscow

In India’s case, growing trade and tariff tensions with Washington may inadvertently strengthen New Delhi’s alignment with Moscow. This trajectory could undermine U.S. strategic influence in South Asia, providing Russia with a broader space to maneuver in the region.

U.S.–EU 15% Tariff Agreement: A Recalibrated Transatlantic Front

The recently announced 15% mutual tariff agreement between the United States and the European Union reflects a renewed effort to rebuild a transatlantic economic and strategic alliance in response to Russia’s continued aggression. This move signals a coordinated Western posture, potentially aimed at isolating Russia while simultaneously sending a message of unity to other global powers such as China and India.

Iran: Exploiting Strategic Ambiguity

Amid this evolving environment, Iran is poised to benefit from continued uncertainty. By sustaining a deliberate policy of nuclear ambiguity, Tehran seeks to maintain a strategic stalemate and leverage geopolitical fragmentation to advance its regional and diplomatic objectives.

Conclusion

Trump’s 50-day ultimatum, now approaching its midpoint, appears to function as a mechanism for indirect pressure—not only on Russia but also on its strategic partners. However, China’s economic caution, India’s opportunity to drift from the U.S., and Iran’s calculated ambiguity suggest that the most likely outcome is a further fragmentation of global alignment, rather than a resolution of the conflict or formation of a unified front.

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Abstract:

As the Middle East remains a focal point of U.S. strategic interests, the return of Donald Trump to the White House is likely to accelerate a shift in American military posture—from ground-based engagement to air superiority. This commentary outlines the key features of Washington’s evolving military doctrine in the region and its long-term implications for regional power dynamics.

Introduction: A Strategic Shift in the Skies

In the context of recent developments and historical patterns across the Middle East, the United States appears poised to consolidate a new military doctrine—one that places a premium on air power and technological superiority. Rather than large-scale troop deployments, the emphasis is now on controlling the airspace to enable precision strikes and deny adversaries operational freedom.

Key Characteristics of the New Doctrine

Two defining elements characterize this strategic transformation:

Advanced Military Platforms:

Increased reliance on next-generation technologies such as the F-35 stealth fighter and the B-2 Spirit bomber highlights the U.S. commitment to operational efficiency and deterrence.

Minimized Ground Presence: A deliberate effort to reduce dependency on ground forces reflects a desire to shorten operational timelines while maximizing tactical impact.

This shift aligns with broader goals of minimizing risk, reducing political costs at home, and achieving swift, decisive outcomes in complex theaters.

Operational Implications: Israel as a Case Study

The Israeli strikes against Iranian targets during the recent 12-day conflict offer a practical illustration of this doctrine in action. Enabled by air dominance and electronic warfare capabilities, these operations demonstrated how traditional air defense systems can be rendered ineffective under a well-coordinated aerial offensive.

Future Force Posture: Less Footprint, More Reach

Looking forward, the U.S. is expected to reassess its military footprint in the region. Likely adjustments include:

Downsizing or reconfiguring forward bases Expanded reliance on offshore assets such as Diego Garcia Use of submarine-launched Tomahawk missiles for targeting nuclear infrastructure Adoption of advanced aerial refueling capabilities to extend mission range Intermittent deployment of aircraft carriers for flexible projection of power

Together, these elements signal a pivot toward a lighter, faster, and more technologically enabled force structure.

Conclusion:

A Doctrinal Pivot with Strategic Consequences

The evolving American strategy of air superiority and remote engagement could reshape the regional balance of power. If fully implemented under a second Trump administration, this doctrine may become the cornerstone of U.S. containment policy—capable of delivering rapid, targeted strikes while limiting exposure and political backlash.

Ultimately, the skies over the Middle East may become the primary arena for future conflicts, where dominance is determined not by boots on the ground but by control of altitude, technology, and information.

A Saudi delegation has traveled to Damascus to explore investment opportunities in the war-torn country.

Riyadh is planning to invest $4 billion in Syria’s cement sector to help the country rebuild the destruction caused by the war.

The planning of aid to Syria by Western powers, regional Arab countries, and Turkey has gained momentum following the rise of the new government in Damascus. In this context, the presence of American companies in Syria’s energy infrastructure sector is noteworthy, which has taken place after U.S. sanctions were lifted through Riyadh’s mediation.

It can be understood that Syria’s development plays a crucial role in establishing stability in the Middle East and the Near East. It has the potential to transform anti-development conditions in the region into valuable opportunities for fostering regional stability.

In this context, Iraq, while receiving investment support, has backed Syria’s development process and is considering expanding energy transit routes through Syria to Europe.

By observing recent geopolitical developments in the South Caucasus, two major trends can be identified:
Türkiye has emerged as a key player by supporting Azerbaijan. Its involvement is evident through military cooperation and the deployment of its forces within Azerbaijani territory.
Türkiye is facilitating Azerbaijan’s access to export oil and gas through pipelines that transit Turkish territory, potentially extending toward Syria and ultimately reaching Europe.

In an effort to strengthen economic cooperation, Ankara is also working to improve relations between Azerbaijan and Syria by supporting both countries in pursuing shared energy and infrastructure interests. In this regard, the state visit between Ahmad Shara and Ilham Aliyev in Baku is noteworthy.

In the meantime, considering the U.S. interest in controlling the Zangezur Corridor to expand its presence and influence in the region, as well as to secure trade routes for imports and exports, the situation is becoming increasingly complex. Russia’s counterbalancing strategy potentially supported by Iran aims to push back against this U.S. stance. The growing number of high-level negotiations between Iran and Russia in their respective capitals can be interpreted as part of these efforts.

As a push back strategy, Russia and Iran have been increasing their military cooperation in the Caspian Sea by holding joint drills.

Regarding the energy trade competition leading by Türkiye and Azerbaijan, they are showing their willingness to ensuring safety for maritime trade and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and Countering external military presence (especially NATO-linked influence). also This military drill is going to demonstrate their coordination as a counterweight to US and NATO influence in the region.

After toppling Asad regime, Türkiye are enjoying its influence in Syria.

Recently Ankara and Damascus reached a maritime agreement.

The agreement can be considered as Turkish influence for pipeline of oil and gas from Iraq to the east of Mediterranean (banias port of Syria) and guaranteed to Europe.

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