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Hamid Zarei

2025-08-19

President Masoud Pezeshkian’s recent visit to Yerevan served as a litmus test for Iran’s “positive balance” regional policy. The trip carried multiple dimensions—from trade and infrastructure to geopolitics—signaling Tehran’s intent to strengthen ties with Armenia while shaping the evolving order in the South Caucasus.

During the visit, Iran and Armenia signed 10 cooperation agreements ranging from economic to political fields. Key projects included the Persian Gulf–Black Sea corridor, construction of a second bridge over the Aras River, modernization of border checkpoints, and the third power transmission line to expand gas-for-electricity swaps. These steps not only solidify Tehran–Yerevan ties but also serve as a strategic response to the recent Armenia–Azerbaijan–Washington peace agreement, pushing Iran’s vision beyond the Caucasus toward the Black Sea.

Tehran’s focus on the Persian Gulf–Black Sea corridor reflects its ambition to join regional transit networks and counterbalance the Middle Corridor. However, the effectiveness of this strategy depends on cooperation with Armenia, Georgia, and Russia—and must contend with China’s heavy investment in alternative routes (the Northern and Maritime Corridors). While Iran seeks a foothold in the regional logistics map, it faces limitations in shifting large volumes of goods away from established corridors.

The geopolitical backdrop is equally important. Tehran’s emphasis on sovereignty and non-interference is also a subtle pushback against the Zangezur corridor narrative, while the absence of a presidential visit to Baku underscores Iran’s cautious stance toward Azerbaijan, whose policies are closely aligned with Turkey, the U.S., and Europe. Relying exclusively on an Iran–Armenia–Russia axis without pragmatic engagement with Baku and Ankara risks leaving Tehran with limited dividends.

In the end, Pezeshkian’s Yerevan trip highlighted both opportunities and constraints. It reaffirmed Iran’s balancing role, yet also exposed the gap between geopolitical ambitions and geo-economic realities. For Iran, breaking free from rigid bloc politics and adopting a more flexible, pragmatic regional approach will be key to converting diplomatic symbolism into tangible strategic gains.