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Summary:

The recent visit of Syria’s Foreign Minister to Moscow marks a significant step in the Assad-successor government’s attempt to stabilize the country amid ongoing sectarian tensions and security friction with Israel. The visit highlights Damascus’s strategic interest in leveraging Russia’s long-standing presence and influence in Syria and the wider Mediterranean to contain internal unrest and boost regional stability.

Key Observations:

Renew of Syria-Russia Relations:

Syria seeks to renew and reshape its ties with Russia, relying on Moscow’s military infrastructure and diplomatic reach to reduce domestic tensions and support economic recovery.

Regional Coordination, Turkish involvement:

The rapprochement is taking place within a broader regional framework. Turkey is visibly active in Mediterranean energy corridors and views increased Russian influence with strategic interest. Moscow’s cooperation with Egypt and its growing presence in Libya are also key to securing Syria’s Mediterranean coast.

Limited Iranian Role:

Despite historical ties, Iran has been largely sidelined in the current Syrian recalibration. Contributing factors include:

-Israeli security sensitivities

– U.S. and Arab opposition to Tehran’s influence

-Ongoing Tehran-Ankara rivalry

Chinese Alignment:

China supports stabilization in Syria as a means to facilitate the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), likely perceiving Russia’s expanded role as a source of security continuity in the country.

U.S. Perspective:

The United States appears to cautiously welcome this Moscow-Damascus engagement if it leads to greater internal stability in Syria and reduced threats along Israel’s borders.

Assessment:

Russia is emerging as a central actor in Syria’s post-Assad recalibration. While Moscow is unlikely to enable Tehran’s return to influence in Syria, it is positioned to balance security dynamics between Damascus, Israel, and regional powers. This development creates both constraints and opportunities for Western and regional stakeholders seeking stability in the Eastern Mediterranean.