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By observing recent geopolitical developments in the South Caucasus, two major trends can be identified:
Türkiye has emerged as a key player by supporting Azerbaijan. Its involvement is evident through military cooperation and the deployment of its forces within Azerbaijani territory.
Türkiye is facilitating Azerbaijan’s access to export oil and gas through pipelines that transit Turkish territory, potentially extending toward Syria and ultimately reaching Europe.

In an effort to strengthen economic cooperation, Ankara is also working to improve relations between Azerbaijan and Syria by supporting both countries in pursuing shared energy and infrastructure interests. In this regard, the state visit between Ahmad Shara and Ilham Aliyev in Baku is noteworthy.

In the meantime, considering the U.S. interest in controlling the Zangezur Corridor to expand its presence and influence in the region, as well as to secure trade routes for imports and exports, the situation is becoming increasingly complex. Russia’s counterbalancing strategy potentially supported by Iran aims to push back against this U.S. stance. The growing number of high-level negotiations between Iran and Russia in their respective capitals can be interpreted as part of these efforts.

As a push back strategy, Russia and Iran have been increasing their military cooperation in the Caspian Sea by holding joint drills.

Regarding the energy trade competition leading by Türkiye and Azerbaijan, they are showing their willingness to ensuring safety for maritime trade and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and Countering external military presence (especially NATO-linked influence). also This military drill is going to demonstrate their coordination as a counterweight to US and NATO influence in the region.